Summary
- Projections indicate that The Hunger Games prequel film may have a weak opening at the box office, potentially making it the lowest opening weekend for the franchise.
- The decision to stick with the release date, despite the ongoing strike, may have hindered the film's promotion and limited the cast's ability to generate buzz.
- The prequel faces tough competition in November, with other highly anticipated films like The Marvels and Wish targeting a similar demographic, potentially affecting its audience reach.
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes box office projections indicate the film might not make an early splash at the box office like its predecessors.
The Hunger Games is an action-packed dystopian science fiction franchise comprising a series of films from Lionsgate that adapted the work of young adult writer Suzanne Collins. The films and books are set in the dystopian society of Panem, beset with hardship and ruled by a wealthy elite few in the Capital who make the poorer districts compete in the eponymous Hunger Games for their amusement. While there were differences between the Hunger Games books and movies, the latter became a massive hit, ascending to international recognition alongside lead actress Jennifer Lawrence's rising star.
While there was quite a stir online when Rachel Zegler joined the Hunger Games prequel in the lead role, the actress’ opening day draw isn’t a match for the franchise’s prime under Lawrence. According to a new report from Deadline, the film is projected to open to $50 million at the box office when it makes its theatrical debut in November, making it the lowest opening weekend for any film in the franchise, which has so far racked up around $3 billion in box office earnings across the four existing films. This projection owes a lot of its conservative estimation to Lionsgate's decision to keep the prequel’s release date despite the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strikes.
The decision to keep the release date was made even though it actively prevented the cast from being able to promote the film in any way due to the terms of the SAG strike. This seems to fly in the face of the theory that Lionsgate planned out the Hunger Games renaissance that sprung forth in tandem with promotional material for the prequel film. While the unpredictable nature of the strike makes indefinitely postponing the release a daunting concept, an intentional approach to building fan anticipation would have examined how much more attention could be brought to the project with the stars' endorsements.
However, the film's November release date is only weeks away, and the cast will not be on hand to drum up support for the project. This predicament is made worse because The Hunger Games prequel cast includes Viola Davis and other notable names that could have drawn in a more varied audience than the franchise core demographic of women 17-34, a group spoilt for choice by the November box office lineup, with Disney's The Marvels and the animated film Wish directly serving as the Hunger Games prequel's most obvious competition.
Some might say they saw the lackluster opening coming, as the wave of young adult adaptations that seemed so strong a decade ago has long since wound down alongside other trends, making the bold choice of a fresh cast for a prequel film unlikely to yield returns. Whether or not the quality of the film will salvage its box office run or if Catching Fire will remain the best Hunger Games installment remains to be seen.
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is set for theatrical release on November 17, 2023.
Source: Deadline