I remember reading the script by Erik Jendresen (writer for Band Of Brothers) for his Star Trek prequel movie about the formation of the Federation. He had planned a trilogy of films with a large portion of it set on Earth. It made heavy references to “Enterprise” era trek and followed the Earth-Romulan War. I was impressed with the script for his first movie. If they followed that idea it would absolutely not retcon First Contact and still follow the formation of the Federation.
