Summary

Thunderbolts* had a strong second-weekend holdout, dropping only -55% from last weekend.
The film eyes a $400 million finish globally, despite lower opening numbers.
Thunderbolts* is part of the MCU's fifth phase, featuring a team of heroes and villains fighting for good.

Thunderbolts*’s second weekend at the box office has a positive side. The staying power is certainly no cause for alarm, but the raw numbers are a bit disappointing.

Thunderbolts*— or The New Avengers as Marvel Studios now calls it — opened with $76 million across three days in North America, on the higher end of $70-$75 million projections. It's a debut on par with Shang-Chi and the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million), both laden with mid-tier characters. However, Thunderbolts* is still the lowest ever summer kick-off for an MCU movie—Iron Man did $98 million during the same period 17 years ago — and the second-lowest ever in the franchise when adjusted for inflation.

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By Catherine Armecin Martin

Positive word-of-mouth, backed by a. 90% Rotten Tomatoes rating (among the highest in the MCU) and an A- on CinemaScore, was hoped to translate to a better-than-usual second-weekend holdout for Thunderbolts*. This wish may have come true. Per Variety, the film earned $33.1 million across North America in its second weekend, retaining its spot atop the market and dipping a respectable -55% from Weekend 1. According to box office analyst Luiz Fernando on X, it’s the 13th best second-weekend holdout in the MCU.

The Best Second-Weekend Drops In MCU History

Black Panther	- 44.7%
Thor	- 47.2%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3	- 47.6%
Iron Man	- 48.1%
Doctor Strange	- 49.5%
The Avengers	- 50.3%
Spider-Man: Far From Home	- 51.1%
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	- 52.6%
Thor: Ragnarok	- 53.5%
Deadpool & Wolverine	- 54.2%
Captain Marvel	- 54.8%
Guardians of the Galaxy	- 55.3%
Thunderbolts*	- 55.5%
Avengers: Infinity War	- 55.5%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	- 55.5%

Thunderbolts*'s Raw Numbers Remain A Mixed Bag

A Potential $400 Million Finish Against A $180 million Production Budget Isn't Exactly A Proud Figure

Overseas, the Thunderbolts didn’t fight as bravely with a $34 million gross (-60%). For reference, Captain America: Brave New World did $35.3 million; Black Widow, $29.9 million; Shang Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings, $35.2 million; Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, $46.2 million; Eternals, $48 million; and DCEU’s Black Adam, $39 million.

With a global haul of $272 million —$128 million domestic and $143 million international —Thunderbolts* eyes a $400 million-ish finish. That a film, which opened softer than its MCU peers, is holding out on par with or even better than usual is a positive sign. Regardless, Disney has something of a Shazam! Situation on its hands. Like the 2019 DCEU film, Thunderbolts* will be deemed a commercial and critical success (though a $180 million production budget may say otherwise), but in the grander MCU scheme, none of this is exciting. If anything, it lends credence to the belief that the franchise is no longer the theater magnet it was pre-Avengers: Endgame. A decade ago, mid-tier films (Captain Marvel, Ant-Man and the Wasp) or films with mid-tier characters (Guardians of the Galaxy) grossed between $600 million and $1 billion.

Thunderbolts* has roughly two weeks to grab all it can from the theaters before another Disney tentpole arrives. Early tracking of Lilo & Stitch projects a reshaping of Memorial Day history with a $100 million debut, and it’s already sporting incredible pre-sales numbers for a PG film.